Posted by Tim McCollum
The cutoff for qualification into the SCT is exactly one week from today. Every team in the conference with a .500 record or better after the games next Saturday qualify.
Circle some of these dates on your calendars fellow hoop junkies. There are hidden gems to be found.
Since we’re a week away let’s take a division by division look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble and even make some predictions of their fate.
The small print first. All of the schedules are taken from highhschoolsports.net. If I have them wrong, blame your local AD. Not all of the games lost due to the latest storm of the century were moved when I did the analysis. That may have a small impact.
Lastly, all of the team records are as of 1/25 as posted on our website. If they are wrong then I’ll need to have a little chat with our standings keeper.
And away we go
A North
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| A North | ||
| Middletown North | 14-1 | IN |
| CBA | 9-3 | IN |
| Howell | 8-7 | Hunterdon Central 1/29 @CBA 1/31 Middletown North 2/3 @Jackson Memorial 2/4 |
| Manalapan | 7-5 | @Freehold Township 1/28 Middletown South 1/31 Brick 2/2 @Marlboro 2/3 |
| Freehold Township | 6-9 | Manalapan 1/28 St Rose 2/1 @Middletown South 2/3 @TRE 2/4 |
| Marlboro | 3-12 | OUT |
| Middletown South | 1-9 | OUT |
Predictions:
Howell: I have to assume losses to CBA and North to bring them to 8-9 with games against Hunterdon Central and Jackson Memorial. Assuming a win against Hunterdon Central then they are playing for their SCT life at 9-9 against a good Jackson Memorial club in their gym on 2/4. Prediction: Howell scores the upset and gets in at 10-9.
Manalapan: At 7-5 they need one win out of four to qualify. Even with a loss to Freehold today I think they score wins against South and Brick to settle their bid early. Prediction: IN
Freehold Township: They are in a tough spot because they need a 4-0 stretch to get in. I’m going to give them the mild upset over Manalapan to get them to 7-9 and wins over South and East to bring them to 9-9. This is all for argument sake. That places a big premium on the St Rose game Tuesday. This is going to be tougher than usual because B central is tougher. Prediction: I hope I’m wrong on this one but I’m thinking St Rose is playing too well to trip up even CBA looms as a trap scenario. Ultimately I think the hill is too slippery. OUT (but prove me wrong Pat’s!).
A Central
| A Central | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| Raritan | 14-1 | IN |
| RFH | 6-4 | Holmdel 1/28 Long Branch 1/29 @SJV 2/1 RBR 2/3 @Metuchen 2/5 |
| Matawan | 8-7 | RBR 1/28, @Pinelands 1/31 @Shore 2/3 Wall 2/5 |
| SJV | 5-6 | @Shore 1/27 -> TBD? Cardinal McCarrick 1/29 RFH 2/1 Raritan 2/3 RBC 2/5 |
| Holmdel | 3-9 | OUT |
| Red Bank Regional | 3-10 | OUT |
| Shore | 4-9 | @Ocean 1/28 @RBR 1/31 Matawan 2/3 Academy Charter 2/4 SJV 1/27 -> TBD? |
Predictions:
RFH: At 6-4 and with a whopping 5 games remaining before the cutoff they then to go 2-3 to get in. I think at minimum they get wins over Long Branch and Red Bank. Prediction: IN
Matawan: They need to get to 10-9 to get in. That’s two wins. Having to go into Shore needing a win scares me a little. That’s a compliment to Shore not a knock on Matawan. The RBR game should be a win making them 9-7 and having to lose to Pinelands, Wall, and Shore. Prediction: Matawan will get picked off once but not three times. They will be IN.
SJV: Assuming the Shore game is rescheduled before the cutoff they have 5 games and need to get to 8-8 to qualify. With McCarrick, RBC, RFH, AND Raritan that won’t be easy as they will need to upset at least two of them to get in. Let’s for argument sake give them a win against Shore and a loss to Raritan. We’re at 6-7 now. I’ve heard that McCarrick is down this year so for fun let’s use that to get Vianney to 7-7. They need to split against RBC and RFH to get in. Prediction: No easy task but I predict one upset and Vianney gets IN.
Shore: At 4-9 they are mathematically still alive but need to run the table to qualify AND the Vianney game has to be rescheduled to before the cutoff. Prediction: Since I gave Vianney the win above I have to give Shore the loss here. The Shore/Matawan game would be VERY interesting if they get the win though. OUT.
A South
| A South | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| Jackson Memorial | 13-3 | IN |
| Brick Memorial | 7-6 | @Southern 1/28 TRE 2/1 Pinelands 2/4 Manchester TBD |
| Southern Regional | 5-7 | Brick Memorial 1/28 TRN 2/1 @Manasquan 2/3 Raritan 2/5 |
| TRN | 4-7 | @Brick 1/27 TRS 1/28 @Freehold 1/31 @Southern 2/1 @Point Boro 2/4 |
| TRS | 6-6 | RBR 1/27 @TRN 1/28 Jackson 2/1 Lacey 2/3 Central 2/4 |
| TRE | 2-11 | OUT |
Predictions:
Brick Memorial: If they schedule the Manchester game they need two wins, otherwise still one. Prediction: TRE gives them one win, and Pinelands the 2nd if needed. IN
Southern: They must get to 8-8 and with Raritan on the schedule that means to me they must run the table and not need the win against Raritan. How fun does that make the Southern Brick Memorial game? Prediction: Southern scores the upset and qualifies before seeing Raritan. IN
TRN: They have a tough road at 4-7. Let’s give them wins in their next three games to get them to 7-7. That means they need a win over Southern or at Point Boro to qualify. I don’t like requiring a win in the Panther Pit for anything. Prediction: The Southern / TRN game will be for all the marbles for both clubs. Southern gets in TRN is OUT.
TRS: With 5 games they need 3 wins instead of 2. Let’s give them a win over RBR and a loss to TRN. That means 2 out of 3 against Jackson, Lacey, and Central. I don’t think that’s going to happen. That makes the TRN game a must win. Prediction: I predicted TRN would win this game above. Prediction: OUT.
B North
| B North | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| Neptune | 8-4 | IN |
| RBC | 9-2 | IN |
| Colts Neck | 7-2 | IN |
| Monmouth Regional | 7-7 | Freehold Boro 1/28 RBC 1/31 @Neptune 2/3 @Lakewood 2/5 |
| Freehold Boro | 8-7 | Monmouth 1/28 TRN 1/31 @RBC 2/3 South Brunswick 2/5 |
| Ocean | 3-11 | OUT |
| Long Branch | 2-12 | OUT |
Predictions:
Monmouth: At 7-7 they need to go 2-2 to qualify at 9-9. Let’s assume a loss to Lakewood which means they need to go 2-1 against Freehold, Ocean, and Neptune. If I were Monmouth I wouldn’t want to make the Neptune game a must win. Prediction: They get the wins they need against Freehold and Ocean and qualify at 9-9. IN
Freehold: The Freehold / Monmouth game will be fun to watch as it is key to both clubs. They need to get to 10-9. I gave Monmouth then win to put Freehold 8-8 so the Colonials will need wins over TRN and South Brunswick to get in. I think RBC will force the issue against South Brunswick. Prediction: IN
B Central
| B Central | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| St Rose | 13-2 | IN |
| Asbury Park | 9-3 | IN |
| Point Beach | 7-4 | Middle @ Prime Time Shootout 1/28 Keansburg 1/31 Asbury 2/3 @Keyport 2/5 |
| Keansburg | 6-6 | Academy Charter 1/28 @Asbury 1/29 Point Beach 1/31 @Dunellen 2/1 @Keyport 2/3 |
| Keyport | 4-6 | St Rose 1/28 @Mater Dei 1/31Keansburg 2/3 Point Beach 2/5 |
| Mater Dei | 2-14 | OUT |
| Henry Hudson Regional | 2-8 | OUT |
Predictions:
Point Beach: One win and they are in. Prediction: Probable wins over Keyport and Keansburg. IN
Keansburg: I have them at 7-9 heading into the Dunellen game. That means a sweep of Dunellen and Keyport to get in. Prediction: IN
Keyport: At 4-6 they have a difficult path with St Rose and Point Beach on the schedule. To qualify they have to upset one of these two teams and run the table. Prediction: OUT
B South
| B South | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| Manchester | 10-3 | IN |
| Lacey | 9-4 | IN |
| Central Regional | 7-5 | @TRE TBD Lacey 1/28 Barnegat 2/1 |
| Barnegat | 8-4 | IN |
| Pinelands | 2-10 | OUT |
| Brick | 1-13 | OUT |
Predictions:
Central: If they don’t reschedule the TRE game they are in. If they do they need one win from TRE, Lacey, or Barnegat to qualify. Prediction: If they schedule TRE I think they win the game. IN
C Central
| C Central | ||
| Team | Record | Status / Games Remaining |
| Lakewood | 13-1 | IN |
| Mon Don | 9-3 | IN |
| Point Boro | 8-5 | IN |
| Manasquan | 3-5 | MonDon 1/28 @Wall 2/1 Southern 2/3 @Holmdel 2/5 |
| Wall | 8-8 | @Point Boro 1/28 Middlesex Vo-Tech 1/31 Manasquan 2/1 @Matawan 2/5 |
| Jackson Liberty | 6-7 | Lakewood 1/28 Brick 1/30 Point Boro 2/1 Calvary Academy 2/3 Ranney School 2/4 |
Predictions:
Manasquan: At 3-5 they either forgot to make a schedule this season or have had their schedule decimated by the weather. With MonDon looming they will need to run the table against Wall, Southern and Holmdel if they do not score the upset today. Prediction: OUT
Wall: They need two wins. There is no law against scheduling cupcakes. That gives them one. They need another against Point Boro, Manasquan, or Matawan. Prediction: They get their win against Squan. IN.
Jackson Liberty: Speaking of scheduling cupcakes…. Prediction: Losses to Lakewood and Point Boro are offset by a sugar rush from eating the cupcakes. IN.
So there is the ShoreLine’s predicted field for this year’s shore conference tournament.
Now for a little bit about all this who’s the best stuff going around. I like reading the Shore Scout’s blog which not surprisingly did start a great PG debate on the forums. He then followed up with another wonderful post talking about that qualities he looks for when looking at a player. I don’t want to take his thunder but if you haven’t take a quick read and come back because it really hits the nail on the head.
On the forums there have been alot of names thrown about. Is Pookie Alter the best point guard? Sean Grennan? Ikie Calderon? Easy Eric from North? Furlong? Brian Kenney? Kukoda? All of these kids names have been mentioned. There has been the he’s the best player argument made. There has been the he gets his team results argument made. There has been the he makes the other players better argument made. There has been he does what his team needs him to do to win argument. So who’s the best PG?
I don’t really care.
I know that is a cop out answer but I don’t get the obsession to label one kid over another as the best of X. Inherently these discussions prop up one kid at the expense of another. That doesn’t make alot of sense to me.
I choose to appreciate the skill of all of these kids mentioned for what it is because the arguments that have been made by their supporters ALL make good points and have merit.
I love Sean Grennan’s moxie especially when he gets that little swagger and drops a dime in transition.
I love watching Ikie zoom in and steal the ball from someone before they realize he’s even near them. He’s probably the fastest kid with the ball in the shore right now. He’s a good passer too.
Pookie Alter is one of my favorites. He has in the gym range and a heart three times too big. It is not a surprise to me that RFH is a completely different team with him in the lineup.
Easy E is just what North needs. Holding the ball and setting up the scorers to …. well … score.
Brian Kenney does a little bit of everything. He moves the ball. He assists. He rebounds. He scores. He can penetrate, he can hit the triple. Very well rounded.
Kukoda has been one of the best stories of the season with his emergence to lead the Roses. I haven’t really gotten a good look at him yet but I’m sure I’ll enjoy it. You can’t argue with results.
The point is I’d rather talk about the value add each of these kids bring to the table rather than push one down to prop another one up. That’s what makes the who’s the best argument silly to me.
